NIWA has published its climate outlook for the next three months:
“A warm end to Autumn”
Most of the country is likely to experience above-average mean temperatures during this period, although cold nsaps could still occur.
Also, while some regions have experienced dry spells, rainfall is likely to be near normal.
New Zealand is likely to experience stronger-than-usual Westerlies, due to lower-than-average sea level pressures, and the current El Nino is also likely to weaken to neutral conditions by winter.
Finally, the north and east of the North Island, and the east of the South Island may see lower soil moisture levels and stream flows than normal, although these should be normal in the rest of the country.
Overall Picture
Temperature:
Above average temperatures are very likely across the country, over the three months of April to June as a whole. Sea surface temperatures are likely to be above average around the coasts.
Rainfall, soil moisture, and stream flows:
Rainfall is likely to be near normal in most regions, but near normal or below normal in the eastern South Island. Below normal soil moisture levels and stream flows are likely for the April-June period in the north and east of the North Island, and very likely in the east of the South Island. Near normal soil moisture levels and streamflows are likely for the south and west of the South Island. Elsewhere, soil moisture levels and streamflows are equally likely to be in the near normal or below normal range.
Regional predictions for the next three months:
Northland, Auckland, Waikato, Bay of Plenty:
Temperatures are very likely to be above average. Seasonal rainfall totals are likely to be near normal, while below normal soil moisture levels are likely. Stream flows are very likely to be in the below normal range.
Central North Island, Taranaki, Wanganui, Manawatu and Wellington:
Above average seasonal temperatures are very likely. Rainfall totals are likely to be near normal, while stream flows and soil moisture levels are equally likely to be in the near normal or below normal range, for the three months as a whole.
Gisborne, Hawke’s Bay, Wairarapa:
Temperatures averaged over the three months are very likely to be in the above average category. Seasonal rainfall totals are likely to be near normal, but stream flows and soil moisture levels are likely to be in the below normal range.
Nelson, Marlborough, Buller:
Seasonal temperatures are likely to be in the above average range. Rainfalls are likely to be near normal overall, while stream flows and soil moisture levels are equally likely to be near normal or below normal.
West Coast, Alps and Foothills, Inland Otago, Southland:
Temperatures are very likely to be in the above average category. Seasonal rainfall, stream flows and soil moisture levels are likely to be near normal.
Coastal Canterbury, East Otago:
Temperatures are very likely to be in the above average category, on the whole during April-June. Seasonal rainfall totals are equally likely to be in the normal or the below normal range, while soil moisture levels and stream flows are very likely to be below normal.
Background
An El Niño continues in the Tropical Pacific, but is showing signs of weakening, and neutral conditions are likely by the winter.