Yesterday marked the start of the ten-day window in which Rocket Lab will attempt to launch its Electron rocket from the Mahia Peninsula in the Northern Hawkes Bay.
If they succeed, this will be the first rocket launched into space from New Zealand, making us the 11th country to do so.
After high winds scrubbed a launch attempt yesterday, Rocket Lab is currently preparing for blast off today, though another postponement is possible.
The SMC gathered expert reaction from international experts about what makes the Electron rocket different and where Rocket Lab sits in the independent space market. Feel free to use these comments in your reporting.
Professor Martin Barstow, University of Leicester, Director of the Leicester Institute of Space & Earth Observation, comments:
Where does this launch sit in the scheme of what else is currently happening in the industry?
“I see this as part of the new spirit of commercial enterprise developing around low cost access to space, of which Space-X is a prime example. In the current context Rocket Lab are not so well advanced, as they have yet to carry out their first launch. Also, their 225kg payload mass is rather smaller than other capabilities.
However, I think there will be a growing need for launch capability for lower mass satellites like this to build satellite constellations. So, if successful, they will be well-placed to support and exploit that market.”
What is Rocket Lab’s competitive edge and is their business model viable?
“It’s not clear to me how their business model functions (since I can’t find their pricing structure), but as mentioned above, they will be hitting an emerging market.”
What is new or different about the Electron rocket technology they have developed?
“I think the use of 3-D printing techniques to produce key components is very novel and likely to lower production costs, giving them a pricing edge. It could also help with reliability.”
Are there any advantages for launching from New Zealand?
“There are no particular advantages in launching from NZ, compared to existing sites. In fact the best launch sites are closer to the equator to get the maximum advantage from the Earth’s rotation.
“So, this is more about developing independent capability, so that the country does not have to rely on launch services from elsewhere. There is a similar issue in the UK where our government is keen to develop launch site opportunities. It’s actually more difficult here due to the proximity of Europe. From New Zealand, you can launch safely over the Pacific.”
How are private ventures like Rocket Lab and SpaceX etc changing access to space?
“This is really about lower costs and creating true commercial (and profitable) markets for space services to drive future space activities.”
Is only launching small payloads viable?
“No, but the current rocket is only capable of launching small/medium payloads at the moment. However, once a successful track record is developed, it is possible to scale-up the systems, as Space-X did.”
Other comments:
“I wish them luck! It’s a very exciting project, but getting into space is hard and success is not guaranteed.”
Dr George Sowers, Independent consultant, former Chief Scientist and Vice-President of United Launch Alliance, a joint venture of Lockheed Martin and Boeing, comments:
Where does this launch sit in the scheme of what else is currently happening in the industry?
“The Rocket Lab launch is another indication of the vibrancy of the commercial space sector at the present time. It is another entrant into the small payload launch market which has been tough for commercial companies to succeed in. It certainly represents a first for New Zealand.”
What is Rocket Lab’s competitive edge and is their business model viable?
“Rocket Lab has some interesting technology such as the electric pump driven engine. And they have embraced the state of the art manufacturing technologies. However the small payload launch market is extremely difficult for commercial companies to make a profit.
“There are several reasons for this. First, the small payload market is not robust. There are many potential customers, but few are able to afford the price of a dedicated launch. On the bright side, there is some indication that the market might be picking up, for example with companies like Planet.
“Second there is fierce competition from nations (India, China, Russia, etc) and larger launchers offering small payload launches as rideshare. Plus, there are a number of other companies vying for the same market. If Rocket Lab succeeds, they will be the first commercial company to do so in the small market. Many have failed, including SpaceX, who discontinued the Falcon 1 small launcher after only a handful of launches.”
What is new or different about the Electron rocket technology they have developed?
“The electric pump power engine is unique. However, it is not clear it has advantages over traditional turbo-pump designs in terms of either cost, reliability or performance.”
Are there any advantages for launching from New Zealand?
“Range availability might be an advantage (less congestion). However, the southern latitude limits customers to high inclination orbits, precluding a portion of the market. It is also a long journey for American or European customers, representing most of the market.”
How are private ventures like Rocket Lab and SpaceX etc changing the access to space?
“Still to be determined for Rocket Labs. SpaceX has disrupted the traditional launch markets, forcing other competitors to transform their business models, at least for the short term. SpaceX has had a number of technological successes, but it remains to be seen if their business model will succeed in the long term.”
Is only launching small payloads viable?
“If the market improves, perhaps. I believe it unlikely due to factors explained above.”
Other comments:
I wish them luck.
Kris Walsh, Former project manager at United Launch Alliance and former director of all NASA launch programmes for Boeing, comments:
Where does this launch sit in the scheme of what else is currently happening in the industry?
“I was the Program Manager of the launch that had the first successful CubeSat launches, and Delta and Atlas continue to launch CubeSats for NASA successfully. The biggest frustration for these small satellites is access to space — they have to wait until the primary payload launches – and delays are common for the larger satellites.”
What is Rocket Lab’s competitive edge and is their business model viable?
“What Rocket Lab offers is access to space for the smaller payloads. So, if Rocket Lab can quickly get reliable, on time launches, they can capture a market ignored by the current industry.
“It will have to also shift customers expectations — payload processing should be mostly complete before the satellites arrive, reducing or eliminating the need for customer access to the launch site, customer viewing would be virtual, etc.
“I also think the $7M price tag for 3 CubeSats is a higher price than many of the scientific payloads of this size can support. So, it would be commercial ventures.
“Any comparison to SpaceX is not realistic. SpaceX’s long term plan was to continue to increase the size of their rockets, and to capture the larger US government payloads. SpaceX did not significantly change access to space for commercial ventures.”
Is only launching small payloads viable?
“Rocket Lab could if 1) they stick to their business model and target small (nano) payloads, especially constellations, 2) they are technically successful both in launch reliability and on-time launches, and 3) they focus on a ship and shoot launch process, minimizing Rocket Lab’s expenses as well as its customers.”