The Royal Commission of Inquiry into lessons learned from NZ’s response to the Covid-19 pandemic has released the first phase of its findings.
The over 700-page report was delivered to the Internal Affairs Minister and made publicly available this afternoon. The report lists 39 recommendations to the government and its agencies, saying these recommendations should be “considered and implemented as soon as practicable.”
Phase One of the Inquiry concludes today, and Phase Two starts tomorrow.
The Science Media Centre asked experts to comment.
Professor Michael Plank, School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Canterbury, comments:
“I welcome the release of this important report and applaud the Commissioners for the comprehensive and balanced job they have done in reviewing New Zealand’s pandemic response and identifying ways future pandemics could be handled better. It will take time to fully digest and respond to the hundreds of pages in the report, but a few points stand out.
“New Zealand’s response overall was highly effective at minimising the health impacts of Covid-19. Our death toll was far lower than most comparable countries and our health system was never overrun. Our lockdowns were strict but they were shorter than in many other countries and our children missed fewer days of school. The initial decision to follow an elimination strategy in 2020 was brave and effective.
“Despite initial successes, over time the response became increasingly challenging and disconnected. The prolonged use of lockdowns and vaccine mandates in particular eroded social cohesion. The plan for when and how to exit the elimination strategy needed to be much clearer and better communicated than it was, and more responsive to changing circumstances. As the pandemic wore on, the government could have done a better job of balancing the direct harms from the virus with the indirect harms of the measures used to control it.
“We don’t know when the next pandemic will occur or what it will look like. But to improve our chances of avoiding things like lockdowns, border closures and overflowing hospitals, we need to get serious about preparing for a range of different pandemic scenarios now. We need to invest in our health system, science sector, community services, and public health functions like testing, contact tracing and vaccine delivery. These things don’t happen by themselves, they need to be adequately resourced ahead of time so they can efficiently kick in when needed.
“The report makes a series of recommendations. Prominent among these is the establishment of a central agency for pandemic planning and coordination. This mirrors a similar recommendation from the recent Australian inquiry. I hope the government takes this and the other recommendations on board.
“We don’t know how much time we have to prepare for the next pandemic, but it’s clear we’ve got a lot of work to do.”
Conflict of interest statement: “Michael Plank was commissioned by the New Zealand government to provide mathematical modelling in support of the pandemic response. He was interviewed by the Royal Commission and also provided several pieces of evidence on request from the Commissioners.”
Dr Siouxsie Wiles, Microbiologist and Associate Professor, University of Auckland, comments:
“I am relieved the Royal Commission’s report has been made public so promptly. It is an important set of documents that the people of Aotearoa New Zealand need to be able to read now and not in two years when the next phase of the Inquiry reports back.
“It’s going to take me some time to fully digest the Phase One findings and recommendations, but from my initial reading of the summary document, its findings are not unexpected – that we had a better health and economic outcome than most other OECD countries, and that those of us in Aotearoa New Zealand spent less time living in lockdown than people in many other countries.
“But it is true that if we had been better prepared, we could have done things differently, and this is where the 39 recommendations come in – to better prepare us for the next pandemic because there will be a next pandemic. I was very pleased to see recommendation 24 about improving building ventilation and filtration. Implementing better ventilation and filtration would have immediate benefits.
“I look forward to hearing how the Government intend to progress the recommendations and hope they will explore how to collaborate with the Australian government, which has also recently received the recommendations from its own COVID-19 inquiry.”
Conflict of interest statement: “I gave evidence to the inquiry.”
Dr Dion O’Neale, Principal Investigator, Te Pūnaha Matatini, and Senior Lecturer, Physics Department, University of Auckland, comments:
“There are a number of lessons and recommendations in the report to guide us so that for future pandemics we retain the things that went well and are better prepared to avoid any of the gaps in pandemic response.
“It was particularly heartening to see that Royal Commission have recommended that pandemic preparedness be supported by developing and sustaining modelling capability and expertise. Our response for COVID-19 relied a lot on self-coordination of Aotearoa’s modelling and mathematical epidemiology community. At least initially, much of this response was only possible through ad hoc arrangements and was highly reliant on people being willing and able to pitch in with time or effort.
“The report recommends that modelling is needed not just in an acute pandemic response, but also for pandemic preparedness where it should be used for scenario planning and policy development – in advance of an outbreak. This includes not just epidemiological modelling but also health, social, and economic modelling – all of which need to be specific to Aotearoa’s population and the factors that can impact the equity of any decisions.”
Conflict of interest statement: Dr Dion O’Neale was the co-lead of COVID-19 Modelling Aotearoa. From 2020 to 2023, the University of Auckland received funding from MBIE, DPMC, and MoH for Dr O’Neale to contribute modelling and analysis expertise to the COVID-19 response.
Dr Helen Petousis-Harris, Associate Professor, University of Auckland, comments:
“I have read some of the report, in particular the section on vaccination. While I was not an informant for the report, the findings in this section reflect my personal observations on the aspects that have been covered. I am really pleased to see special attention acknowledging the early failure to support Māori and Pacific providers to deliver the vaccine programme to their own communities, a deliberate decision at the time, despite expert advice, that was the wrong one. Once these communities were handed the resources they went gangbusters. I hope this lesson will not be forgotten.
“My own area of special interest is vaccine safety and I am looking forward to this being covered in the next phase, as a functioning multifaceted pharmacovigilance system is a critical component of a vaccine programme in a high-income country, and independence, visibility, and transparency vital to public confidence.
“While misinformation and disinformation are frequently mentioned as significant challenges (and they are indeed massive existential threat), there does not appear mention of the strategy and efforts to mitigate it. It is certainly clear that the ‘single source of truth’ was a mistake from the beginning, like a red rag to a few bulls. Contrary to comments in the report, the effects of the disinformation problem are still evident and probably set to grow even further given global events. It is wishful thinking that things are back to normal. What is the government going to do to mitigate the damage done by disinformation and what will the recommendations be?
“Overall the report looks great, an essential piece of work.”
Conflict of interest statement: HPH has received research funding from industry for investigator led projects, served on expert advisory boards for industry, WHO, NZ government, and on clinical trial DSMBs. She is co-director of the Global Vaccine Data network who are conducting safety studies on COVID-19 vaccines across over 30 countries. She has not been financially compensated by Pfizer.
Professor Michael Baker, Department of Public Health, University of Otago, Wellington, comments:
“I am pleased to see the Royal Commission of Inquiry on Covid-19 report released now so that it can inform improved preparedness for future pandemic threats.
“Based on an initial review of the summary and recommendations, it appears to provide a broad and well-reasoned summary of important insights from the Covid-19 pandemic and Aotearoa New Zealand’s highly successful response to it. It provides a very welcome and needed road map for future pandemic planning.
“Positive areas from my perspective were the strong focus on needing a strategic response to severe pandemic threats that emerge in the future. Including having proactive policies for excluding such threats at the border if they are sufficiently severe. It was also good to see recognition of the importance of airborne transmission of the Covid-19 virus and the valuable role of masks and improved indoor ventilation for reducing transmission. The discussion on human rights, and the role of mandates, is valuable.
“The report didn’t appear to say much on reducing the long-term effects of Covid-19 infection, notably the large disease burden caused by Long Covid. The pandemic is still continuing according the World Health Organization and vaccination and reducing infections remain important.
“Implementing the recommendations will be the big challenge. In that regard, recommendation 39 is critical. This calls for assigning a minister to lead the implementation process. The report recommends 6-monthly reporting on progress, with these reports to be made publicly available.
“In that regard, it is concerning that Te Whatu Ora has just announced major cuts in positions in the National Public Health Service and its Digital and Data teams. These capabilities are critical for any future pandemic response. There is a strong argument to halt these cuts while NZ is implementing the recommendations of the Covid-19 inquiry.”
No conflicts of interest.
Dr Amanda Kvalsvig, Epidemiologist/ Research Associate Professor, Department of Public Health, University of Otago Wellington, comments:
“The Commissioners and their team are to be congratulated for a thoughtful and wide-ranging report that identifies both strengths and limitations in Aotearoa New Zealand’s Covid-19 pandemic response. The report outlines key lessons learned which – if followed – can greatly strengthen NZ’s capacity to keep its population safe and well during future pandemics.
“Reading through these hundreds of pages of well-argued evaluation and commentary, it’s disappointing to see the the pandemic being referred to as “the now-past COVID-19 pandemic” as if it’s all firmly in the rear-view mirror. The world is still experiencing unpredictable variant waves driven by ongoing viral evolution. Between wave peaks, baseline levels are still high enough to cause a heavy human and financial cost. Covid-19 is not showing seasonal patterns and the virus has capabilities for organ and system damage (Long Covid) that are not shared by common cold coronaviruses or influenza – in other words, it is not a cold and not a flu. Long Covid is increasingly recognised as a major and still-evolving burden on population health and on economies. What these criteria add up to is that the emergency phase may be over but we are still in a pandemic. NZ’s failure to acknowledge this fact doesn’t bode well for the work needed to build and maintain preparedness for future pandemic threats.
“One of the best ways we can prepare for a new pandemic is to build our capacity to control the infections we already have. Each winter respiratory season could be a test run for different ways to reduce sickness levels and protect New Zealanders’ access to education, work, healthcare, and social connection. We can improve our indoor air quality right away, with immediate benefits to us all. Likewise, reducing household crowding, ensuring that families can always get enough to eat, and improving access to mental health support are key issues for New Zealanders today that are also pandemic protections. There are so many examples in this excellent report of system-level supports for the wellbeing of New Zealanders that will also function as vital infrastructure when the next pandemic arrives.
“As discussed in the report, NZ’s Covid-19 experience shows what can be done with a strategic and proactive approach, even when faced with a highly infectious pandemic virus. We know we can do better, however. It would be good to hear some specifics from Government about how they plan to embed the lessons from this report into policy and practice. New Zealanders need to hear what resources will be committed to strengthening our protection against future, potentially more severe epidemics and pandemics. Pandemics don’t line up in an orderly queue: even a short delay in building our pandemic preparedness could cost us dearly if another serious pathogen emerges while we’re still dealing with the impacts of the current one.”
No conflicts of interest