Key agenda issues at the 31st UN climate conference include transitioning to clean energy, protecting oceans, achieving zero waste, and making cities climate-resilient.
COP31 will run from 9-20 November local time in Antalya, Türkiye.
The NZ SMC asked experts (including two researchers attending COP31) to comment.
James Renwick, Professor of Physical Geography, Te Herenga Waka – Victoria University, comments:
“It is a fraught time for climate change negotiations, with the latest plenary of the IPCC suspended over disagreements, which puts the IPCC 7th Assessment process in danger. The climate is changing rapidly, and we are failing to engage with the problem.
“From COP31, I would love to see a commitment to phasing out fossil fuels globally. Facing up to the fact that fossil fuel burning is the number one cause of climate change would be an excellent step, followed by a roadmap for how to move away from them. That would give me real hope the world community is serious about tackling this massive problem. But I am not holding my breath, given the failure of the COP30 meeting to go there in 2025.”
Conflict of interest statement: “None, though I worked with the IPCC 2001-2021.”
Associate Professor Daniel Kingston, School of Geography | Te Iho Whenua, University of Otago | Ōtākou Whakaihu Waka, comments:
“Globally, October 2026 was the warmest on record. The planet is on track for the second warmest year in the instrumental record, and the second year (after 2024) above the 1.5 °C warming threshold. The significant El Niño event currently underway is likely to mean that 2027 sets a new record for global warmth, with evidence suggesting that warming is accelerating in many parts of the world (NZ included).
“Based on current global greenhouse gas policies worldwide, analysis from United Nations Environment Programme points strongly towards overshooting the 1.5 °C threshold – so the question now moves to how long will the overshoot period last, and can we pull things back before reaching 2 °C of warming?
“Against this fairly grim backdrop, the world’s governments are about to meet at the latest annual climate summit, COP31, in Türkiye. Solutions for rapidly reducing greenhouse gas emissions are within our grasp – much of the necessary technology exists, and is becoming increasingly affordable. In many places though, policy support for making these changes is sorely lacking.
“Recent history of these meetings suggests that no major breakthroughs will occur at COP31 – but reinvigorated and sustained action is needed from all countries. Big emitters such as China and the USA clearly have critical roles here, but a substantial proportion of global emissions collectively come from small nations such as New Zealand – so, we all have a part to play.”
Conflict of interest statement: “I have no conflicts of interest to declare.”
Dr. Karan Titus, PhD in Renewable Energy Engineering, Postdoctoral Fellow at Civil and Environmental Department, Sustainable Energy Research Group (SERG), University of Canterbury, comments:
Note: Dr Titus will be attending COP31.
“Although somewhat controversial in recent years, COPs are important gatherings for scientists, activists, educators and entrepreneurs to raise their voices for climate action. For that reason, I am grateful to represent the University of Canterbury and New Zealand science.
“My background is in renewable energy and carbon dioxide removal – two important tools for mitigating climate change. While I’m at COP31, I’ll be looking to see how different parties look to accelerate those tools. This could be through accessing new finance mechanisms, solidifying cross-border climate cooperation, or even prioritising local community benefits. Given that the world is on track to overshoot the 1.5°C target – risking severe climate impacts – renewable energy and carbon dioxide removal are more important than ever.
“The items listed in the COP31 action agenda are promising for New Zealand and the Pacific. Some aspects are born of growing necessity, such as access to climate finance and improved community resilience. But other agenda items, such as electrification and green industry, can bring about more prosperity, jobs and even better public health outcomes.
“The world has agreed for ten years now that something must be done about climate change. How we do it, and how quickly, remains a sticking point. This will be the first time I will be close to climate negotiations between parties. The distribution of both the means to act and the urgency of risks is not equal between all parties.
“I’ll be paying close attention to how bold the appetite is for transformative action. Sometimes what is cut from the final text is as nearly as important as what makes it in. Take for example last year in Belém (Brazil), where pressure from fossil fuel producers quashed language around a transition pathway and subsidy reform.”
Conflict of interest statement: “No conflicts of interest.”
Associate Professor Nathan Cooper, School of Law, Politics and Philosophy, University of Waikato, comments:
“As COP31 prepares to begin next week, in Antalya, Türkiye, attention is turning again to what the global community is prepared to do to address the Climate Crisis. Recent climate COPs have been characterised by under-delivery and by repeated failure to unlock the finances necessary for effective climate adaptation and mitigation.
“Described by this year’s Presidency as a COP of ‘implementation and acceleration’, there is certainly an urgency to turn ambition into outcomes this time. But once again, much will depend on what can be agreed around climate finance, to further institutional capability and help countries meet what will necessarily be increasingly ambitious climate targets in the years to come.
“Ahead of next week’s negotiations, COP31’s Action Agenda has already been launched, which is a positive signal. The Agenda is a deliberate attempt to support nations to deliver tangible progress on key issues, including climate finance, just transition, and electrification.
“The green elephant in the room this time might be Artificial Intelligence. Work is under way on the Antalya Artificial Intelligence Pledge, a voluntary framework to support AI use for climate action. But given growing concerns around AI’s negative and growing climate footprint, the role of AI in relation to the Climate Crisis remains controversial.”
Conflict of interest statement: “No conflict of interest.”
Dr Jocelyn Turnbull, Principal Scientist – Carbon Cycle, Earth Sciences New Zealand, comments:
“COP31 is the latest instalment of the Conference of the Parties to the UNFCCC, an annual event where governments negotiate the fine details of international agreements on all things climate – emissions mitigation, adaptation to climate change, and how we fund and support the necessary work around the world.
“This year, the role of cities is coming to the forefront. The IPCC Special Report on Climate Change and Cities will be released in April 2027 and will highlight the importance of cities in global climate change. Cities are hotspots for emissions, which means they are also the place where we have the most opportunity to mitigate emissions. And at the same time, cities have big vulnerabilities to climate change. We’ve seen that in New Zealand with events like the 2023 Auckland rain event, which caused massive flooding and was exacerbated by climate change and the rapid urban development we have seen in Auckland.
“New Zealand is unique in our emissions profile, with around half of our emissions coming from agricultural methane, which is a hard problem to tackle since agricultural emissions are so embedded in our economy. Sometimes we forget that other half of our emissions come from the burning of fossil fuels, which happens mostly in our towns and cities, primarily from traffic (petrol and diesel), and also from industry, and commercial and residential activities (coal, natural gas and oil).
“These emissions from cities are an easier problem to tackle in New Zealand since we already have solutions to reduce these emissions through transition to electric vehicles, and electrification of energy supply. These transitions not only reduce our emissions but simultaneously benefit our economy through reduced reliance on imported fuels and increased use of home-grown renewable electricity generation.”
Conflict of interest statement: “I am a lead author on the upcoming IPCC Special Report on Climate Change and Cities discussed here.”
Dr Cathrine Dyer, Lecturer in Climate Change, Victoria University of Wellington, comments:
“Scepticism about the ability of the United Nations climate process to deliver meaningful progress at its 31st conference of parties (COP) in Antalya, Türkiye is entirely justified.
“Institutional adaptation is necessary to address structural barriers, and the pressure for reform is deepening. The current decision-making structure allows small groups of countries to block progress on central issues, while commercial lobbying and fossil fuel interests have overwhelmed the process. Their influence permeates the recent focus on scaling carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies to effect a fast turnaround after overshooting the 1.5˚C Paris target.
“There is growing tension between institutional adaptation and institutional preservation. Wealthier countries are focused on improving the efficiency of the current UNFCCC architecture at COP31, and are likely to prioritise more measuring, monitoring, and refining of processes. Meanwhile, global majority countries are seeking greater reform in how the architecture distributes power and resources.
“The most interesting aspects of this are the increasing focus on building regional and local institutional capacity (particularly around fair transitions) and greater local and regional control of climate finance. This promotes a multi-level approach to climate governance.
“As usual, Pacific SIDS are playing a strong game, having launched the Pacific Resilience Financing Facility (PRF), to which New Zealand is a signatory, during the Pacific Islands Forum (PIF) meeting in 2025. The facility is owned and managed by Island governments and aims to mobilise accessible and predictable funding for climate and disaster resilience, while centring Pacific priorities and decision-making. Such regional facilities can provide better support for community-level initiatives that struggle to access multi-lateral funds. They aim to leverage the facility during COP31 to transform global climate pledges into local, direct action.”
Conflict of interest statement: “Nothing to declare.”
Professor Tim Naish, Chair of the World Climate Research Programme and Professor of Antarctic Science at Victoria University of Wellington, comments:
Note: Professor Naish will be attending COP31.
“My goal at this COP, as Chair of the World Climate Research Programme, is to remind Parties and Delegates of the centrality of science needed to underpin the negotiations, and especially the just transition mechanism and Global Goal on Adaptation.
“Climate science faces unprecedented threats. Funding cuts are jeopardizing research jobs, institutions, climate data and society’s ability to manage climate impacts. Disinformation is eroding public trust. Multilateral tensions and fragmenting international collaboration threaten the assessments that the UNFCCC depends on, as well the very survival of WCRP and experiments such as CMIP7 climate and sea-level projections. We will be asking Parties to safeguard the science that serves them by maintaining, or increasing, support for the research that enables informed decision-making.
“The imminent prospect of overshooting 1.5 °C will shape much of the negotiation at COP 31. We will update on the progress of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, CMIP7, which is delivering climate and sea-level projections for the new scenarios, including overshoot pathways. These are the primary source of information for IPCC Assessment Reports and climate-resilient development that all nations and sectors of society rely on.
“We will report to delegates, that despite recent uncertainties on the timing of delivery of the next IPCC assessment report, that our CMIP7 fast-track remains on schedule: the first data are already openly available, and the full dataset will be published in early 2027 for the Second Global Stock take in 2028.
“I have low expectations on progress towards increasing mitigation ambition, as about 150 parties have submitted new NDCs, covering about three-quarters of emissions; the US has withdrawn its plan, and the petrostates continue to stall negotiations.
“I expect the Pacific to be prominent—about 30 countries backed the Taku Pakasoa Declaration at the Fiji/Tuvalu pre-COP, calling for faster cuts, simpler finance access and ocean protection, especially given the existential consequences of 1.5 °C for them and other SIDS/ LDCs.
“Given the unavoidable nature of many climate impacts, adaptation implementation will be a high priority, and will focus on the operationalisation of the Paris Agreement’s Global Goal on Adaptation. GGA sets targets and indicators for achieving the goals and has proposed a tripling of climate finance. This is where decision ready information based on the best available science is critically needed.”
Conflict of interest statement: “My only conflict is my role as ‘Chair of the World Climate Research programme’ and I will be part of the ‘WMO Delegation’.”
Dr Nick Cradock-Henry, Principal Scientist – Social Science, Earth Sciences New Zealand, comments:
“COP31, which begins next week, will once again convene policy makers, civil society, and researchers to progress work towards addressing the impacts, implications, and our collective response to climate change.
“While emissions reduction rightly remains a priority, the inevitability of climate overshoot and consequent disruption highlights the adaptation imperative—the growing gap between planning and action on-the-ground, and the material effects already affecting agriculture, health, economic activity, and ecosystems.
“Losses from extreme weather events such as Cyclone Gabrielle in 2023, and shifting flood frequencies, carry major consequences for lives and livelihoods. These events increasingly create cascading and compounding impacts across critical infrastructure, mental health and wellbeing, and financial stability through rising insurance premiums and replacement costs.
“Effective adaptation can reduce current and future risk and help secure a climate-resilient Aotearoa. Recent research and ongoing assessment consistently highlight the distributional and uneven nature of vulnerability, the growing interconnectedness of economic and physical systems, and the time delays inherent in intervention. Action now can return dividends tomorrow.
“COP31 provides an important opportunity to give adaptation the same strategic focus as mitigation. This will require close consideration of choices, tradeoffs, and opportunities—domestically and for our closest Pacific neighbours—and greater collaboration to help close the gap between planning and implementation in the face of escalating climate risks.”
Conflict of interest statement: “I am a lead author Working Group II, for the IPCC 7th Assessment Report, Chapter 9 – Australasia.”