Evidence suggests that climate change has led to changes in climate extremes such as heat waves, record high temperatures and, in many regions, heavy precipitation in the past half century, according to the latest report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
Climate extremes, or even a series of non-extreme events, in combination with social vulnerabilities and exposure to risks can produce climate-related disasters, the IPCC said in its Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (SREX), released today.
Policies to avoid, prepare for, respond to and recover from the risks of disaster can reduce the impact of these events and increase the resilience of people exposed to extreme events, the IPCC shows in the report.
A full copy of the report and a summary for policy makers is available here.
“The main message from the report is that we know enough to make good decisions about managing the risks of climate-related disasters. Sometimes we take advantage of this knowledge, but many times we do not,” said Chris Field, Co-Chair of IPCC’s Working Group II, which together with Working Group I produced the report. “The challenge for the future has one dimension focused on improving the knowledge base and one on empowering good decisions, even for those situations where there is lots of uncertainty,” he said.
The report is the outcome of cross-disciplinary teamwork between scientists studying the physical aspects of climate change, scientists with expertise in impacts, adaptation and vulnerability as well as experts in disaster risk management. A total of 220 authors from 61 countries, including New Zealand, collaborated to produce the report.
The IPCC held a press briefing at the Planet Under Pressure conference in London today to launch the report. You can listen to audio of the briefing below.
[audio: http://www.ipcc.ch/news_and_events/docs/srex/SREXteleconference3-28-12.mp3]The SMC collected the following expert reaction to the IPCC SREX:
Dr James Renwick, Principal Scientist, Climate Variability & Change, NIWA, comments:
“The SREX is important because of its breadth and its integrated nature. It assesses extremes and risk in all parts of the globe, in quite fine regional detail, and it brings together the physical science, the examination of impacts on infrastructure and on humanity, and it brings in the response – disaster risk reduction. So we see what’s happening, what effects are being felt, and what we do about it and how we respond. That makes the SREX a very important document for informing policy- and decision-making.
“In New Zealand, located almost midway between the Equator and Antarctica, we are open to extreme events from all quarters. Moisture-laden storms coming out of the tropics and sub-tropics can bring torrential rain, flooding and landslides (as we’ve seen the past few months), along with damaging winds. Storms coming north from the southern oceans can bring very cold conditions to many parts of the country, again along with damaging winds and the possibility of snow storms and subsequent freezing temperatures. At any time of year, strong winds are a possibility, as we sit in the hemispheric westerly wind belt all year round. Associated with all these things is the risk of coastal hazards – storm surge, high seas, and coastal inundation. A more insidious risk, but one that is quite common here, is drought. Despite our maritime climate, prolonged dry spells and drought conditions are quite common in some parts of the country.
“As such, in New Zealand we have a lot of experience in dealing with extremes. It is rare that loss of life occurs with extreme of weather extremes. The agricultural community shows a lot of resilience and often deals well with drought conditions. Yet, we expose ourselves to risk by living in risky places. We all love the sea, and some of the most valuable real estate in the country is right on the coast, in the most vulnerable locations.
“Greenhouse gas increase (climate change, global warming) has already been shown to be associated with increases in extreme rainfalls in many parts of the world. Projections of future climate clearly show an increasing risk of extremes of rainfall (floods and droughts) and of coastal hazards. It is critical to find the political will and plans of action to reduce global emissions of greenhouse gases, to mitigate future risks.”
From the UK SMC:
Robin Stott, co-chair of the Climate and Health Council, said:
“We welcome this report which considers the likely adverse health consequences of extreme weather events provoked by climate change. This additional information emphasises the need for an immediate and effective response to human induced climate change, a response which combines carbon emissions reduction with a transfer of resource to those who have least responsibility for carbon emissions and yet have the greatest vulnerability to the extreme weather events.
“Given that the necessary actions have major health benefits, and that what’s good for the climate is good for health, we will continue to encourage all health professionals to become actively involved in actions to tackle climate change.”
Bob Ward, policy and communications director at Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment at London School of Economics and Political Science, said:
“This report highlights how increasingly exposed both rich and poor countries are becoming to the impacts of climate change through extreme weather events. In the UK, the evidence of climate change is already obvious, with seven of the 10 warmest years on record all occurring since 2002, and last year being the second warmest since records began in 1910. But it is more difficult for us to detect how the UK’s extreme weather is changing in response, mainly because such events are, by definition, relatively rare, making it difficult to measure trends. Global warming also means the UK should experience more heatwaves and fewer extreme cold weather events. A warmer atmosphere holds more water meaning the UK also faces growing risks of both downpours and droughts, and rising sea levels will increase the threat of coastal floods.
“The costs of adapting to these changes in extreme weather will be very substantial. The Government will need to spend money on building bigger and stronger coastal and river flood defences over the next few decades, and will need to give the go-ahead very shortly for the construction of a new flood barrier across the Thames to protect London. The cost of flood insurance is also likely to increase, and many homeowners and businesses will find it increasingly difficult to obtain affordable cover. Water companies will need to spend more on reservoirs and other storage facilities to deal with droughts, and local councils will need to spend more on upgrading drainage systems to stop flash flooding from heavier rainfall. Homes and offices will need to be adapted to deal with extremely hot summer days, particularly in cities. All this expenditure will be needed over the next few decades to deal with changes in extreme weather that are now unavoidable. Beyond that we have a choice of either investing in ways of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, such as renewable energy, and so avoid the worst potential impacts of climate change, or instead spend ever increasing amounts on dealing with the consequences of inaction in the form of more severe and frequent extreme weather events.”
Dr Simon Brown, Climate Extremes Research Manager at the Met Office Hadley Centre, said:
“This focus of the IPCC on extremes is very welcome as less emphasis has traditionally been given to these phenomena which are very likely to be the means by which ordinary people first experience climate change. Human susceptibility to weather mainly arises through extreme weather events so it is appropriate that we focus on these which, should they change for the worse, would have wide ranging and significant consequences. This review will be very helpful in progressing the science by bringing together a wide range of studies – not just on the physical weather aspects of climate extremes but also on how we might adapt and respond to their changes in the future.”
Prof Bill McGuire, Professor of Geophysical Climate Hazards at University College London, said:
“One of the key ways in which anthropogenic climate change will affect human society is through the increasing impact of extreme events such as floods and droughts. This landmark report uses the latest observations and models to forecast what we will be up against in the decades to come. It also highlights the complex and sometimes unexpected ways in which climate change may drive dangerous extreme events, including a response from the solid Earth in the form of increased landslide activity and perhaps other geological hazards such as earthquakes and volcanic eruptions.”
The SREX is important because of its breadth and its integrated nature. It assesses extremes and risk in all parts of the globe, in quite fine regional detail, and it brings together the physical science, the examination of impacts on infrastructure and on humanity, and it brings in the response – disaster risk reduction. So we see what’s happening, what effects are being felt, and what we do about it and how we respond. That makes the SREX a very important document for informing policy- and decision-making.
In New Zealand, located almost midway between the Equator and Antarctica, we are open to extreme events from all quarters. Moisture-laden storms coming out of the tropics and sub-tropics can bring torrential rain, flooding and landslides (as we’ve seen the past few months), along with damaging winds. Storms coming north from the southern oceans can bring very cold conditions to many parts of the country, again along with damaging winds and the possibility of snow storms and subsequent freezing temperatures. At any time of year, strong winds are a possibility, as we sit in the hemispheric westerly wind belt all year round. Associated with all these things is the risk of coastal hazards – storm surge, high seas, and coastal inundation. A more insidious risk, but one that is quite common here, is drought. Despite our maritime climate, prolonged dry spells and drought conditions are quite common in some parts of the country.
As such, in New Zealand we have a lot of experience in dealing with extremes. It is rare that loss of life occurs with extreme of weather extremes. The agricultural community shows a lot of resilience and often deals well with drought conditions. Yet, we expose ourselves to risk by living in risky places. We all love the sea, and some of the most valuable real estate in the country is right on the coast, in the most vulnerable locations.
Greenhouse gas increase (climate change, global warming) has already been shown to be associated with increases in extreme rainfalls in many parts of the world. Projections of future climate clearly show an increasing risk of extremes of rainfall (floods and droughts) and of coastal hazards. It is critical to find the political will and plans of action to reduce global emissions of greenhouse gases, to mitigate future risks.