New Zealand’s national contribution to reducing greenhouse gas emissions is due to be announced today.
Participating nations are due to submit their next Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) to reducing greenhouse gas emissions by February. This is a responsibility under the Paris Agreement, from which the US has recently withdrawn.
The SMC asked experts to comment.
Dr Rebecca Peer, Senior Lecturer, Civil and Natural Resources Engineering Department, University of Canterbury, comments:
“Ahead of the government’s new emissions reduction target (NDC2)
“However, to align with the Paris Agreement’s “highest possible ambition” requirement and to contribute our fair share to emissions reductions in line with a 1.5-degree goal, our target would need to be even lower. There’s no doubt that these commitments are key to the global effort to mitigate climate change, even more so with the US pulling out of the Paris Agreement (although retaining membership in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change).
“For almost all of 2024, we experienced global average surface temperatures above 1.5°C relative to pre-industrial levels (the Paris Agreement target). Now is not the time to be shy about climate commitments. The science is clear on what happens if we continue to hurtle ourselves to a high-emissions future: increasingly severe and devastating climate hazards, transgression of planetary boundaries leading to irreversible changes, and more. It is abundantly clear that we will pay, in more ways than one, for inaction in this critical decade.”
Conflict of interest statement: Dr Peer receives funding from MBIE to research energy transitions and carbon removal.
Dr James Renwick, Professor of Physical Geography, Victoria University of Wellington, comments:
Do commitments under the Paris agreement still matter, now that the US has withdrawn? In what ways?
“Yes absolutely. They matter more if the US is not involved, as that means one of the major emitters will not be contributing to the global effort to reduce emissions. Hence all other countries have to work harder, to make up the difference. The globe must reach zero emissions of greenhouse gases, especially carbon dioxide, as soon as possible, to avoid unmanageable consequences of climate change.
“It is unfortunate that the US has signalled it will pull out of the Paris Agreement, as the US currently emits about 11% of the global total. Still, other countries can and must take the lead, if the US does not want to be at the forefront of this vital effort.”
How significant are the gaps between this type of commitment and actual emissions?
“The gaps between NDCs and actual emissions are large. As the UN Environment Programme notes in their latest “emissions gap” report, there is “a massive gap between rhetoric and reality.” Global total emissions are still rising, despite 30 years of “COP” meetings, the Kyoto Protocol and the Paris Agreement.
“We have not yet taken action. All countries need to find ways to start reducing emissions strongly, year-on-year, from now. Around a 10% per year reduction is needed from now, until we get to zero, if we are to have any hope of stopping warming between 1.5 and 2°C, the Paris Agreement range. Current commitments would deliver around 3 degrees of warming by 2100.
“New Zealand has made a small contribution to global emissions reductions, with gross emissions having fallen a few percent in recent years. As noted by the Climate Change Commission, this has been more by good luck than good management, and the country is not being set up to meet future emissions reductions mandated through the Zero-Carbon Act. New Zealand has one of the world’s highest per-capita emissions levels, so we have a real imperative to work hard. And we have a real opportunity to lead the world, providing technology, ideas, and inspiration to all other countries. I would like to see Aotearoa’s NDCs reflect this.
“By themselves, the targets do not seem to drive behaviour at all, as we have not seen global emissions fall yet. Money is always a big driver of behaviour, so if the cost of emissions was made significantly higher, for instance through the ETS, we would likely see the behaviour change we need.”
What are the consequences if we fail to meet them?
“If the global community fails to meet emissions reduction targets implied by the Paris Agreement, and we let global warming exceed 2°C, that would be “catastrophic” for global society, in the words of UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres.
“We would lock in metres of sea-level rise, redrawing the map of the world for thousands of years into the future. We would bring about massive losses in food production through heat waves, droughts and storms, and would displace hundreds of millions of people, bringing about humanitarian crises the like of which the world has never seen.
“We must get on top of climate change this decade. This should be the number one focus for all governments worldwide.”
Conflict of interest statement: “I receive funding from MBIE and other agencies to study climate change. I was an author on the past three Assessment Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. I was a Commissioner with the New Zealand Climate Change Commission.”